Pope Succession
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The process of selecting the next leader of the Catholic Church began on Wednesday.
By Elisabetta PovoledoJason Horowitz and Emma Bubola
Reporting from Rome and Vatican City
Follow live updates on the conclave to elect a new pope.
The death of Pope Francis last month at the age of 88 set off grief and mourning around the world — along with a complex process to find a successor.
Experts say there isn’t a single front-runner, but several names have been cited. It’s very difficult to predict who will be chosen: Before the selection of Pope Francis in 2013, many bookmakers did not count him among the front-runners.
One big question is whether a successor to Francis should push forward or roll back the changes he made to the church. Many of the contenders are aligned with Francis, though some are more progressive or conservative.
One big-name candidate is Cardinal Pietro Parolin of Italy, who was Francis’ second-in-command and who may have the support of the Curia, as the Vatican bureaucracy is known
Others are considered more charismatic, like Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle from the Philippines, who is sometimes called the “Asian Francis.”
The next pope technically doesn’t have to be among the cardinals who can vote. But he will almost certainly come from the conclave’s electorate.
Francis’ successor will be selected by cardinals at the conclave that began on May 7. Cardinals, known as the “princes of the church,” rank just below the pope in the Roman Catholic Church; together, they are known as the College of Cardinals. When a pope dies, the college chooses a successor.
There are currently 252 cardinals. Only those under the age of 80 are eligible to vote, and there are 135 of them, the largest number in the church’s history. Pope Francis appointed about 80 percent of them.
The period between the death of a pope and the election of a new one is called the “sede vacante,” which means “the seat is vacant” in Latin. During that time, the College of Cardinals keeps general oversight of the church, but it is barred from making any major decisions.
When the cardinals meet for the conclave, they gather in the Sistine Chapel. All cardinal electors must swear an oath of secrecy and vote by secret ballot. A two-thirds majority is needed to elect a new pope, and campaigning is part of the process, though it should not appear so.
Cardinals are not allowed to leave the conclave except in rare cases. The word conclave — from the Latin for “with key” — refers to the isolation imposed on them, which is meant to keep the electoral process from dragging on.
During the conclave, most of the cardinals live in Casa Santa Marta, which was built on John Paul II’s orders to replace the improvised rooming arrangements in the papal palace where they used to stay.
The cardinals cast repeated votes until there is a two-thirds majority. After every vote, the ballot papers are burned in a stove along with an additive that produces a color, and the smoke is released through a chimney that can be seen from St. Peter’s Square, where crowds typically form to watch and wait. If a vote ends without a two-thirds majority, the smoke is black.
When a decision is reached, the smoke is white.
Inside the Vatican, the dean of the college asks the chosen successor whether he accepts the job. If he says yes, the dean asks for the name he wishes to be called as pope.
In the sacristy of the chapel, the new pontiff is dressed in a white cassock. After greeting the cardinals, he proceeds to a balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica, where a senior cardinal proclaims in Latin, “Habemus papam,” or “We have a pope.”
The length of papal conclaves has varied widely over the centuries. But if the last 100 or so years are any guide, it should take no more than a week.
The longest conclave in that time took 14 ballots, lasted five days and produced Pope Pius XI in 1922. Francis was elected after two days of voting. His predecessor, Pope Benedict XVI, was chosen on a fourth ballot just a day after the conclave started, making it among the shortest of the last century. The shortest conclave, the election of Pope Pius XII in 1939, took only three ballots. But it has not always been so quick: The conclave that ended with the election of Pope Gregory X on Sept. 1, 1271, took two years, nine months and two days.
Before the conclave, the cardinals spent a week in “general congregations,” which are daily meetings where church leaders give brief statements about the major issues facing the church.
They allow the cardinals, many of whom don’t know one another because they are scattered around the globe, a chance to sound one another out about priorities, agendas and charisma. They are also a forum for potential flameouts. The first rule of papal campaigning is that there is no papal campaigning. Self-aggrandizement and transparent politicking are taboo in the non-campaign campaign to determine the next pope.
Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio of Argentina drew the attention of fellow cardinals after a roughly four-minute speech he gave at one of the closed-door meetings in the Vatican before the 2013 conclave. In his remarks, he envisioned a church that got out of its insular comfort zones and self-referential habits. He emerged as Pope Francis.
In 2005, Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger, then the dean of the College of Cardinals, gave a persuasive funeral homily for Pope John Paul II — famously denouncing “a dictatorship of relativism” — and then emerged from the conclave as Benedict XVI.
Isabella Kwai contributed reporting.
Elisabetta Povoledo is a Times reporter based in Rome, covering Italy, the Vatican and the culture of the region. She has been a journalist for 35 years.
Jason Horowitz is the Rome bureau chief for The Times, covering Italy, the Vatican, Greece and other parts of Southern Europe.
Emma Bubola is a Times reporter based in Rome.
Pietro Parolin: The Vatican’s secretary of state is someone who cardinals say could have a steady, bureaucratic hand on the church’s wheel.
Pierbattista Pizzaballa: As Latin patriarch of Jerusalem, Cardinal Pizzaballa has long experience in a politically fraught region.
Luis Tagle: Cardinal Tagle of the Philippines is known as the “Asian Francis,” but has been criticized for not being vocal enough about his country’s brutal drug war and clerical sex abuse.
Jean-Marc Aveline: Cardinal Aveline of Marseille, France, has spent a large part of his career promoting conversations between faiths in a port city at the confluence of diverse cultures and religions that is also plagued by poverty and crime.
Robert Francis Prevost: In the tussle over whether to continue Pope Francis’ inclusive agenda or return to a conservative path, supporters of Cardinal Prevost — a native of Chicago who has spent the bulk of his career outside the U.S. — pitch him as a balanced alternative.
Matteo Zuppi: Cardinal Zuppi of Italy has worked with the needy and the disenfranchised, even as he participated in peace talks around the world.
Mario Grech: Cardinal Grech comes from Malta, but is known to cardinals around the world for his role as the secretary general of an advisory body of bishops.
Peter Erdo: The archbishop from Hungary is a standard-bearer for those in the church who favor a return to traditional rules and doctrine after Francis.
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